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Lonzo Ball Discussion: PELICAN!

Discussion in 'NBA Discussion' started by OmarE, Jun 22, 2017.

  1. Weezy

    Weezy Moderator Staff Member

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    I assume this is smart, good news?

     
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  2. RonStu

    RonStu - Lakers Starter -

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    PR leak prior to big trade

    Dude really wants to stay. Too bad he comes with baggage.
     
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  3. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers MVP -

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    lonzo's camp would leak that he's been eating frito's and may have lost vision in his left eye if they want him to stay.
     
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  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Yes you do. People always overestimate early picks and underestimate late picks - at least in the NBA and NFL. If someone offered two middle first rounders for the #4 pick, it's probably to your advantage to do it. Every chart I've ever seen that examines ACTUAL value of draft picks shows this. When people use a priori value (like Jimmy Johnson's chart in the NFL), those numbers are literally made up. They correspond to how likely people are to make a trade, not to how good the value is. If you know what others value a pick at and what it's likely to be at in fact, you should be able to trade back very reliably in the NFL and NBA.

    It's fixing in on one stat like this - odds to win a championship - that makes people overvalue those picks. There's a percentage chance that a particular player helps you win a championship. It's low. But picks 1-5 tend to have higher chances (btw, last top 5 pick to win a ring - Kyrie Thompson - a long time ago) than anyone else. But the comparison isn't #1-5's value compared to one other player. It's that player plus another player compared to the two picks you trade for, for instance. So, if a #4 pick has a 5% chance of doing it, and the next player on the team has a 2% chance of doing it, but you add two 4% chancers, your team is better by making the trade.

    I have tons of data on this in the NFL, but I'll crank it out for the NBA and let you see it.
     
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  5. SamsonMiodek

    SamsonMiodek - Rookie -

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    While you are probably right on al accounts here and I can't wait to see your data, I guess the reason why a top pick is valued much more than late picks is because of how valuable the actually best players in the given draft are compared to the remaining ones. Each GM probably believes he can make the right choice and if he does, the top pick (or one of them) should give him a much higher chance of both winning in general, as well as winning the chip. If you look at the best players in each draft class, they do tend to win championships or at the very least fight for them/generate wins, they just are not always the guys chosen in the top 5. The thing is, most teams are not very good at picking the right players even if given the opportunity.
     
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  6. fabfourlakers

    fabfourlakers - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Oooo I like this and I'm interseted in seeing this!
     
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  7. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Here's just a quick look at the last ten drafts...

    Would you trade #4 for, say, 11 and 19?

    2018
    Jaren Jackson
    for
    Shai Gileous-Alexander
    and Kevin Huerter

    2017
    Josh Jackson
    for
    Malik Monk
    and John Collins

    2016
    Dragan Bender
    for
    Domantas Sabonis
    and Malik Beasley

    2015
    Kristaps Porzingis
    for
    Myles Turner
    and Jerian Grant

    2014
    Aaron Gordon
    for
    Doug McDermott
    and Gary Harris

    2013
    Cody Zeller
    for
    Michael Carter-Williams
    and Sergey Karasev

    2012
    Dion Waiters
    for
    Meyers Leonard
    and Andrew Nicholson

    2011
    Tristan Thompson
    for
    Klay Thompson
    and Tobias Harris

    2010
    Wesley Johnson
    for
    Cole Aldrich
    and Avery Bradley

    2009
    Tyreke Evans
    for
    Terrence Williams
    and Jeff Teague
     
  8. alam1108

    alam1108 - Lakers MVP -

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    Wow 2016 and especially 2011.
     
  9. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    Careful ..... you don't want to be invited down to Temecula.

    :LLLLLebronlaughing:
     
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  10. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I'd do 2009, 2010, 2012, and probably 2018, too, for me.
     
  11. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    If @sirronstuff was still here he'd have a big issue with your premise on 2016.

    :Laugh:
     
  12. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I was all over Domas.
     
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  13. RonStu

    RonStu - Lakers Starter -

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    He'd probably have been a star with us tbh
     
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  14. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I have to check on the NBA a bit more, but a pick after the 5th round in the NFL draft is literally worse than a person you can grab off the street, but their contracts are so favorable that they provide a certain kind of value there. The NBA's financial situation is less favorable for a team than the NFL's, so I'll have to take a look at how this impacts the question. And I know replacement level value in the NFL, like very clearly. It's less than 2 Added Value. (You can grab RBs off the street to give you 2 AV.)
     
  15. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    He'll be 22 this season. His career is ahead of him. There's just a risk that the'll cut and run to Europe after he's dropped from this contract if things keep going like they are. BTW, he's getting better every year.
     
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  16. RonStu

    RonStu - Lakers Starter -

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    seemed like they cut minutes on him last year after who they drafted/signed

    Sometimes you have to have the right situation to develop to your full potential.

    Like Zubac

    :dwightcrying:
     
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  17. lavar-is-trash

    lavar-is-trash - Rookie -

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    Crazy that the Lonzo Ball chapter in Los Angeles may be coming to an end within the next few days. So much for his jersey hanging in the rafters here one day.
     
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  18. Toklat

    Toklat - Rookie -

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    This will be the one we regret if it happens. Lonzo is going to be dominate on the defensive end. Fun to watch and will continually improve on offense. The one to keep it possible.
     
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  19. OmarE

    OmarE - Lakers Starter -

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    I can't believe that keeping Zo isn't a priority over kuzma?! Didn't we hire Jason Kidd because of Lonzo too?

    Keep Zo trade the rest.

    Zo
    Hart
    LeBron
    AD
    McGee

    And with the cap space either get a star or fill out the roster with shooters and defense, like Danny Green, Seth Curry, Trevor Ariza etc
     
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  20. KareemtheGreat33

    KareemtheGreat33 - Lakers All Star -

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    it ain't over til it's over, but if Zo stays we can blame @LTLakerFan for his usual premature celebration, good thing @therealdeal is no longer around or it would be a double "jinx" boys we have to deal with
     

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