JULIUS RANDLE (2014 #7) Randle was the Lakers' first lotto pick since Andrew Bynum. Bynum went on to be an integral part of LA's second Phil Jackson-led championship run and was himself selected an all-star. As a result, much was expected of Julius Randle. Randle's career started nearly as poorly as possible. Fourteen minutes into his first game, with 0 rebounds and a TS% of 26 (and a PER of -7.5), Randle suffered a broken leg. He would miss the remainder of the season. His numbers were understandably dreadful. Scoring 3.4 (terrible/poor) Passing 1.25 (terrible/poor) Hustle 1.2 (terrible/poor) Overall Efficiency: 20 (barely potential NBA body) It was a disaster of a season, in so many ways. This season, Randle has been in and out of the starting lineup, and his play has shown various phases as a result. He got off to a bit of a slow start in October: Scoring 5.3 (adequate/solid) Passing 2.3 (adequate/solid) Hustle 1.8 (poor/adequate) Efficiency 49 (NBA body) November was much kinder to Randle, as he rattled off five double doubles and started throughout the month: Scoring 5.5 (solid) Passing 2.7 (solid/good) Hustle 2.9 (solid/good) Efficiency 71 (key role player) Randle came off the bench for the majority of December, but he still managed to log eight double doubles. Scoring 5.6 (solid/good) Passing 1.9 (poor/adequate) Hustle 3.5 (excellent) Efficiency 81 (starter quality) January has seen Randle's shot disappear almost entirely. He has shot >50% just once, and he hadn't double doubled until this past week. Inserted into the starting lineup for the past three games of the month, Randle has responded with 10.0 points and 12.3 rebounds, but he has still shot just 13-35. The scoring efficiency hurts: Scoring 4.7 (poor/adequate) Passing 2.4 (adequate/solid) Hustle 3.1 (good/excellent) Efficiency 65 (rotational player/key role player) Randle's cumulative stats over the past two seasons put him in the middle to late of the first round. To view him in that way is unfair, however, and it misses his ridiculous contributions this season. He is the best rebounder in the draft class - BY FAR (Clint Capela's 6.3 rebounds per game, though good enough for second place, are far behind Randle's 9.4). He is also the only player averaging close to a double double so far, and his 10.3 points per game are 6th best in the draft class. So, perhaps Randle is top 10 in terms of performance through a season and a half, and he seems to be trending upwards. Realistic Utopian Scenario: Carlos Boozer shot significantly better than Randle, but other than that, the two compare favorably. Neither is a great passer, blocks many shots, or picks up a lot of steals. Both were solid scorers and good rebounders. In fact, however, Randle has a few other things going for him that Boozer didn't: in their age 21 seasons, Randle is a better scorer (in terms of points per 36 minutes) and is a rebounding at a better rate than Boozer ever has. Basically everyone who compares favorably to Randle's early career numbers is an All-Star (Spencer Haywood, DeMarcus Cousins, Z-bo, Moses Malone, for instance). If Randle is destined to be an offensive minded PF who can develop any semblance of a shot, he'll average 18/12 for the next decade and flirt with the ASG. Cold, Hard World Scenario: Lorenzen Wright wasn't much of a shooter, didn't block shots, and didn't steal the ball, but he could score reasonably well, and he was a solid rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. He carved out a 13 year career as a journeyman, and perhaps career averages of 8/6.4 are all that Julius can post on a strong team, where he cannot expect to play more than 28 MPG on a regular basis. Best Use: Find a shooter, insert that shooter at the SF spot. Let Julius crash the glass and live off scraps. Until he develops a jumper and a right hand, he is best suited as a garbage man. He will be a very good garbage man, maybe one of the best, but he will have to diversify his game if he is to break out of that mold.
JORDAN CLARKSON (2014 #46) Drafted at #46, Clarkson has quickly become a fan favorite and chugged up the charts, firmly positioning himself as one of the top six rookies in the draft class. He was rewarded with a First Team All-Rookie award for his efforts. He was the first Laker named to the All-Rookie 1st team since Eddie Jones, from the 1994 draft. A series of injuries thrust Clarkson into a starting role as a rookie. He did not disappoint, showing himself the best player on the Lakers squad on many occasions. Scoring 5.8 (good/excellent) Passing 3.4 (good/excellent) Hustle 2.6 (solid/good) Overall Efficiency: 75 (key role player/starter) Doing the majority of the initiating of the offense, Clarkson was simply good - better than just about anyone thought. November 2015 offered a good new baseline for Clarkson. He had lost principal initiator duties with either Kobe or Russell on the floor with him, and he had some adapting to do: Scoring 5.8 Passing 2.6 Hustle 2.5 Efficiency 67 JC was remarkably consistent but not spectacular in December, as he scored between 7 and 19 points in every game, and fell into single digits only twice. A cold stretch from distance (0-15 across six games) late in the month dropped his scoring efficiency: Scoring 5.5 (solid) Passing 2.5 (solid) Hustle 2.5 (solid) Efficiency 59 (NBA body/fringe rotational player) Clarkson is a rather different player when he is not doing the initiating of the offense; he attacks well and has a decent outside shot. He has added more hustle to his game in January though: Scoring 5.8 (good/excellent) Passing 2.5 (solid) Hustle 2.7 (solid/good) Efficiency 64 (rotational player) Clarkson's emergence puts the Lakers in a bit of a tough position. On one hand, he has shown himself to be an adequate starter in the NBA. On the other hand, it is difficult to see him as an elite Shooting Guard. He isn’t an elite scorer; he has severe defensive limitations, too. The fact that he does not handle PG duties means that he will not likely be a Jameer Nelson-type player either. Yes, he is far better than his draft position, but is he a cornerstone of a rebuild? Realistic Utopian Scenario: Steve Smith. More a PG/facilitator early in his career, Smith became a pure SG after three years in the league. He played 15 seasons in the NBA, made an All-Star Game, started more than 700 games in his career, and piled up 13,000 points, 3000 rebounds, and 3000 assists. Cold, Hard World Scenario: Willie Anderson did some good things in his NBA career. He stuck in the league for 9 seasons, started 432 games, and averaged 15-5-5 for his career. He also shot better than JC at 47% from the floor. He never developed a three-point shot necessary to put him to the next level, so he was always at best a decent scorer. Clarkson is already a better three-point shooter, but he has some work to do in the assist/rebound game, and he needs to improve his shooting from the floor generally, so the strength might compensate for the lack. Best Use: Clarkson seems best suited to having the ball more and making more decisions, at least from an individual point of view. It would be unfair to put a ceiling on him right now, given what he has already done to shatter some of those outside imposed limitations. As an off the ball guard, Clarkson has to continue to improve his outside shot and put in work on the defensive end. He can and should be a legitimate option to create buckets, principally for himself but also for teammates. His early success is forcing LA's hand at least a year early: they will have to make a big decision without sufficient information.
2014 Draft: Randle (7), Clarkson (46), Black (UDFA) 2015 Draft: Russell (2), Nance (27), Brown (34) --Black. That one's tough.
I really like your Randle and Clarkson projections. One player Randle is kinda starting to remind me of is Kenneth Faried. High motor and causes a lot of anarchy. alittle undersized, not much polish on his offensive game.
If someone wants to give him the Jeremy Lin-type deal, I wonder what the Lakers do. I take it they make it happen anyway, but by the mid-point of next season, we'll know whether that's a mistake or not, I think.
^ Randle is under contract for at least another year or two. I think Randle is a better passer than Boozer, but within this "offense" he's had little opportunity to prove it. I'm not saying a lot better, but that's something I absolutely expect to get better over time and especially without Byron.
I was talking about Clarkson in terms of the deal, but that wasn't exactly clear. We definitely have time on Randle. I agree that the "system" we're using obscures a lot of player capacities. Figuring out what that would look like in a better offense is tough though. Randle might rebound worse in a better system, however, as we might actually hit shots. He might be a better passer, but Boozer was a pretty good passer in his prime.
True. I think Julius's numbers go down a tick rebounding, but if we're a better team with an actual offensive system then our possessions probably increase too which means more opportunities. Clarkson I think is absolutely matched no matter what this summer. He's a good young player who has a role on a good team. I don't know if that role is a starting one, but he's a gamer. I want him around when we get better.
randle's rebounds will drop a bit if his fg% climbs, too, as he gets a board or two off his own misses each game. I agree that Clarkson's a laker next year unless a magical trade materializes prior to the deadline.
TARIK BLACK (2014 UNDRAFTED) Tarik Black went undrafted, but that wasn’t because he was unworthy. Draft Express had him rated 62nd, just outside the draft range; NBADRAFT.NET had him 58th, just at the end of the second round. Moreover, his play immediately showed that he was a better player than a number of players who were selected. Was Jusuf Nurkic (6.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 45% FGs), who made the All-Rookie Second Team a better player than Black (6.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 58% FGs)? It is far from obvious. Unlike the other young bucks so far discussed, Black began his season in another uniform. With the Houston Rockets, Black struggled to find playing time, but he still hustled well. This would become his calling card. Houston (2014/15): Scoring 4.7 (Poor/adequate) Passing 1.4 (terrible/poor) Hustle 3.5 (excellent) Efficiency: 66 (potential rotational player) Then he arrived in Los Angeles, saw a big leap in his minutes per game, and he looked far more comfortable on the court. He became an efficient scorer and a hustler on offense and defense. Los Angeles (2014/15): Scoring 5.3 (adequate/solid) Passing 2.0 (adequate) Hustle 3.4 (good/excellent) Efficiency: 74 (key role player/starter) It seemed that the Lakers had claimed a bargain bin player, turned him into a top 10 rookie from that draft class, and could pencil him in as a backup big for the next few seasons, at least. Then something strange happened. Black disappeared. On the disappearance of Black, Byron Scott has suggested that Black should emulate Kenneth Faried, Dennis Rodman, and Ben Wallace. All are incredibly athletic, great rebounders, and did not have much in the way of skillset (with the possible exception of Rodman). This apparently amounts to the advice to play all out, be physical, and be the best defender on the floor. A lot to ask from an undrafted player. Black palyed only seven minutes in October, but he did see more playing time in November before racking up a series of DNP-CDs and Inactives (with 22 minutes of 10 point, 10 rebound ball in the middle) over the course of two months. His November numbers were not terrible, but they were far below his previous season's performance: November 2015 Scoring 5.3 (adequate/solid) Passing 1.0 (terrible) Hustle 2.9 (solid/good) Efficiency 60 (potential rotational player) Although all of these numbers come in limited minutes, it is clear that the best indication of Black's ability comes from last season as a whole and this more recent stretch of ball in January: January 2016 Scoring 5.4 (adequate/solid) Passing 1.8 (poor/adequate) Hustle 3.8 (excellent/exceptional) Efficiency: 84 (starter) Quite simply, there is no reason for Black to be anywhere but in the lineup. He is an adequate defender, a true hustle player, and he might be the second best big to enter the NBA in the 14/15 season (after teammate Julius Randle). Realistic Utopian Scenario: Anderson Varejao's early career saw him anchored to the paint (nearly 80% of his FGs came within 10' of the rim over the course of his first seven seasons), doing the dirty work, and playing tough defense. He has now extended his range, and it has allowed him to extend his NBA career. Varejao's 4500 points, 4500 rebounds, and 15,000 career minutes across 12 seasons show that players in this mold can be successful. (Note: Why not Chuck Hayes? Simply because Black is a more talented offensive player than Hayes ever was.) Cold, Hard World Scenario: Black has already played more minutes than Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Shavlik Randolph, so perhaps his lower end is a player like Michael "The Animal" Smith, who managed 170 starts across seven seasons, with career averages of 6 points and 7 boards. Best Use: First or second big off the bench, in the energizer role. Black could make a long career filling that niche, and he can fill in for spot starts, especially in the Small Ball Era. It would be a catastrophic mistake to let him go without an attempt to retain him on the cheap.
I am fairly certain he porked Byron's wife. It's the only logical explanation for his benching. But Black is good as gone, imo. Would you come back to this team after the way you've been jerked around?
Not playing Randle and Russell big mins has been a huge mistake but the mishandling of Black is even bigger than that I think.
What's worse is the Kobe farewell bull s--- Mitch dropped a couple weeks back shouldn't interfere with that at all. Kobe is playing sf. None of our kids (except Brown who we don't care as much about anyway) play his position. Byron could literally start all four kids (Black, JC, Russell, Randle) and not encroach on Kobe's glorious farewell.
D’ANGELO RUSSELL (2015 DRAFT, #2 PICK) When the Lakers wound up with the second pick in the draft, they realized they would be drafting at the highest position in team history since taking James Worthy with the first overall selection in the 1982 draft. Couple that with a team coming off an atrocious season and entering what would likely be the final season for the face of the franchise. The stars aligned for Russell, but the amount of pressure that came along with this opportunity was a grave burden. October offered a brief and pretty brutal introduction to the NBA for the rookie PG: October Scoring 5.1 (adequate/solid) Passing 2.6 (solid/good) Hustle 1.9 (poor/adequate) Efficiency: 50 (NBA Body/potential rotation player) Russell took advantage of November, establishing a career-best 16 points on November 6th, topped that with 17 on the 20th, and matched the once more before the end of the month. That was not enough for Byron Scott, and Russell headed to the pine for a conversation with the pine. November Scoring 5.3 (adequate/solid) Passing 3.1 (good/excellent) Hustle 2.3 (adequate/solid) Efficiency: 63 (rotational player) Note the steady trend upward. Russell would top 20 points twice in December. He did more than score the ball, however. Russell added a double double and handed out at least our assists eight time. December Scoring 5.6 (solid/good) Passing 3.2 (good/excellent) Hustle 2.7 (solid/good) Efficiency 70 (key role player) Things got even better in January. Despite coming off the bench and missing two games, Russell has topped 20 points twice, establishing a new career high (27). He has handed out at least two assists in every game he has played, and he has shot nearly 47% from the field and 37% from distance. January Scoring 6.1 (excellent/exceptional) Passing 3.4 (good/excellent) Hustle 2.1 (adequate/solid) Efficiency 75 (key role player/starter) Realistic Utopian Scenario: Calling anyone Jason Kidd borders on blasphemy, and Russell would have to increase both his assists and defense by a wide margin to get into that conversation. On the other hand, Penny Hardaway was a four-time All Star, piled up 10,000 points, 3500 assists, and 3000 rebounds over fifteen years. While he posted better numbers as a rookie than Russell, he was also three years older than DA. Hardaway didn't really have the kind of shot from distance that DA has either. Cold, Hard World Scenario: Is it fair to call Eddie Jones Russell's lower end? Jones has the higher 3pt% and lower assist numbers compared to Hardaway, but Jones was a better defender. He also managed three All Star appearances, 14,000 points, nearly 4000 rebounds and nearly 3000 assists. While Hardaway burned more brightly, Jones lasted longer. Best Use: Russell must be held accountable, must improve his defense, must improve his decision-making. That all comes with on court experience and then direction from the mentor and/or coach. That is precisely what Russell needs.
really bummed about black. I think he's a good backup big. quietly quite optimistic about Russell. he looks star-ish to me. lots of hand-wringing about guys like porzingis, but long term, I think Russell can be as good or better. towns was clearly the #1, but Russell may still prove to be the clear #2.
I was thinking about the comparison I made. This is Penny vs. Russell, both as rookies, but it's only Russell since the ASB: Penny: 16 points 6.6 assists 5.4 rebounds 47-27-74 (shooting split) Russell: 18 points 4.8 assists 3.0 rebounds 47-49-69 (shooting split) Penny's career high was 42 points. Russell hit 39 as a rookie. I'm thinking that that kind of line that Penny has is probably more like what Clarkson will do, and I think - but again I'm torn here - that Russell will go the way of a purer scorer. It's hard to say. His passes are so sweet that bigs still aren't expecting them.
I wanted to take some time at the end of this season to check in on how I saw these players developing and where they now stand. TARIK BLACK Projections (2015): Scoring Efficiency: 5.11 Passing Efficiency: 1.83 Hustle Efficiency: 3.40 Position: BIG Positional Efficiency: 72 -Tarik is going to give the Lakers about what he did last season. He's a decent scorer, a respectable decision-maker, especially for a big, and he's a solid hustle player. He offers a bit of versatility, being able to play the 4 against many 4s and the 5 against all but the tallest of centers. Suggestion: Be like Mbenga/Chuck Hayes hybrid. 2017: Scoring Efficiency: 5.26 (adequate/solid) Passing: 1.85 (poor/adequate) Hustle: 3.73 (excellent/exceptional) Position: BIG Positional Efficiency: 81 RULING: Tarik is officially a league average big, in my view. He doesn't have an outside shot, but he's earning time with efficient shooting, solid rebounding, and respectable defense. He's clearly outperformed Mbenga, and he's even well beyond Hayes's career 3.7 points, 5.0 rebounds with 5.3/5.1. JORDAN CLARKSON PROJECTIONS (2015) Scoring Efficiency: 5.88 Passing Efficiency: 3.47 Hustle Efficiency: 2.54 Position: PG (Wing) Positional Efficiency: 76 (74) -Constantly working on his game, Clarkson should improve his scoring, playmaking, and overall game from last season. He has looked like by far the best player on an otherwise not terribly impressive Summer League team. He also at times looked like the best player on a pretty bad Lakers team last season. He could end up being the best, most consistent player on a respectable squad this season. Suggestion: Be like Tyreke Evans 2017: Scoring Efficiency: 5.88(good/excellent) Passing: 2.77 (solid/good) Hustle: 2.28(adequate/solid) Position: PG/Wing Positional Efficiency: 63/65 RULING: Since being moved off ball to finish his rookie season, Clarkson really has not looked like the same player. His effort on defense is less clear to see, and his playmaking has disappeared. Recent stints at PG have revealed glimpses, but it probably is not enough. He shoots the three better than Evans, but in nearly every other aspect of his game, he has much work to do. LARRY NANCE PROJECTIONS Scoring Efficiency: 5.21 Passing Efficiency: 2.20 Hustle Efficiency: 3.00 Position: BIG (Wing) Positional Efficiency: 70 (56) -Nance's scoring is going to be difficult to gauge. His jump shot is atrocious at present, but he was a decent scorer in college despite that fact. He is a surprisingly solid decision-maker with the ball, and he is a solid hustle player. Suggestion: Be like Nocioni. 2017: Scoring Efficiency: 4.99(poor/adequate) Passing: 2.40 (adequate/solid) Hustle: 3.55 (excellent/exceptional) Position: BIG Positional Efficiency: 77 RULING: Nance has not yet developed the shot we'd all hoped. Still, he's just about every bit the player Nocioni was - tough defense, a better rebounder, and a much better shooter (but less effective scorer). It's hard to be unhappy with what Nance has become. He's another league average big - and slightly better than Tarik Black.
