From Where I Stand (A Series)

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by trodgers, Jul 16, 2015.

  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    Players who helped/hurt their stock:

    Helped:
    Huertas - he has all but guaranteed himself a spot; right?
    Lou Williams - he has essentially replaced Nick Young
    Julius Randle - With exceptionally good scoring from a PF, he has probably earned the starting nod.
    Tarik Black - Black was a more polished scorer and hustled better than expected. He's a great big on the end of the bench.
    Roy Hibbert - Hibbert dominated the Hustle stat and passed better than he did in Indy.
    Ryan Kelly - Kelly sported a respectable all-around game that might earn him a spot on the team.

    Hurt:
    Nick Young - Young shot the three well. That's it.
    Anthony Brown - Brown rated between "poor" and "adequate" in all three categories.
    Robert Upshaw - Upshaw didn't score well, falling just short of the "poor" line, but his Hustle stat was only between "good" and "excellent." With his skill set he didn't do enough to convince the brass.
    Metta World Peace - With a scoring stat between poor and adequate and a hustle stat now worst on the team, Metta doesn't belong.
    Rob Sacre - Sacre isn't a better player in any way, for the second year in a row.
     
    ElginTheGreat and Barnstable like this.
  2. Toklat

    Toklat - Lakers 6th Man -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    1,946
    Likes Received:
    5,124
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    Going to yet again keep my minority status. I'm staying on the AB band wagon. I think Scott is seeing what I'm seeing that he is getting better and figuring this out. Granted he didn't blow anyone away with his play so far but it is way too early to give up on him. I don't think he hurt himself because coaches don't usually have the same unrealistic expectations that we do as fans.
     
    LTLakerFan and Ryanwestlombardi like this.
  3. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    28,475
    Likes Received:
    62,061
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    I think there's a clear gap in those numbers and what I saw on the floor for World Peace and for Jabari Brown. I would never say Jabari Brown was even an adequate passer in the pre-season and I wouldn't say Metta World Peace was between "poor" and "terrible" with his hustle. Those two numbers being a deciding factor, I would go World Peace for sure if picking between the two.

    Other than that I agree with most everything. We have a heck of a lot of guys that are somewhere between a role player and a starter whether that's because of limited talent or limited experience is immaterial really, but it's not all that great for wins.
     
  4. Ryanwestlombardi

    Ryanwestlombardi - Rookie -

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2014
    Messages:
    466
    Likes Received:
    503
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Oregon
    Offline
    So they can /will keep 14, suit up 12 ...correct?
    Starters, Russell, Clarkson, Bryant, Randle, and Hibbert
    Second unit, Huertas, Williams, Young, Bass, and Kelly
    4 more, Nance, A.Brown, Black, and......Jabari Brown
    Black over Sacre...how can this not happen?
    J. Brown over Artest ...Jabari had a nice game last night, he and Kelly were the only ones. Ron Ron's only value is as a practice player and mentor...why not cut him and offer him a coaching position to do just that?
     
  5. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    They can keep 15, but we've tended to keep 14. 12 active either way.
     
  6. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    I want to point out a couple of things about these numbers.

    First, just remember what they mean. I've titled them Scoring Efficiency, Passing Efficiency, and Hustle Efficiency. They're measures of your ability to do that thing WITH IMPACT efficiently. Passing is mostly a measure of your ability to produce assists over turnovers at a high rate. Hustle is a measure of your ability to make a positive impact with offensive boards, blocks, and steals while avoiding TO and PFs. (If there's a reliable site with 50/50 balls, I'd gladly add that in.)

    Second, applying those ideas...

    You might not be thrilled with JaBari's number - and that's okay. There are other indicators that show his lack as a passer - like his 5:8 ast:to ratio. Moreover, JaBari produces only .99 points per possession consumed, which is pretty unimpressive (The Lakers as a team are typically around 1.09 or so). Brown's assist rate is, however, higher than that of Young, Bass, Kelly, Upshaw, Holmes, Frazier, A. Brown, Black, and Sacre. It's just that he turns it over so much. His ast/to ratio was one of the worst on the team. Here's my thought: an assists is about 2.1 points in the NBA. A TO is -1. A 5:8 ast/to ratio means that you're producing 11 while surrendering 8. Given that he did that in 86 minutes, it's not bad.

    Peace might do something for the team. I don't know what it is, and I don't know that it's quantifiable. What he doesn't do is offensive rebound, block shots, or steal the ball. In 85 minutes he had a total of two of those things, one o-reb and one steal. On the other hand, he turned it over 5 times and committed 11 fouls. If there's a measure for a "smart" foul on a site, I'm all for it :)

    50/50 balls and smart fouls are two things that would make those numbers more fine-tuned.
     
  7. alam1108

    alam1108 - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    13,498
    Likes Received:
    37,006
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Laker Land
    Offline
    Mitch likes that empty roster spot for trade possibilities.
     
  8. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    28,475
    Likes Received:
    62,061
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    It wasn't a critique of your system at all, just a point that to me such systems are useful up until a certain point where I am watching and measuring impact by game flow. Do the numbers point to World Peace as a valuable asset? Maybe not, but like you said there's other ways to contribute that aren't necessarily quantifiable.

    Also like you said there's no way for the system to determine the "smart"-ness of the numbers. For instance if Jabari plows ahead into traffic and loses the ball it records that as a TO the same as Metta making a good pass to say Nance Jr. who isn't ready for the pass and so it gets deemed a turnover on Metta. Not saying I have any specific examples of that, just using them as examples.

    All in all, I think Metta's attitude, knowledge, and professionalism (who would have thought those three things would be attached to Metta even a couple years ago?...) give him more value to the team than the ability to score from Jabari.
     
    lakerjones and trodgers like this.
  9. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    Cheers, mate :)
     
    therealdeal likes this.
  10. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    I think it's time to talk about some of the young guys the Lakers have on the team, starting with Sacre, who is the first acquired of what I'll consider "the young guys." That's everyone under 27 on the current roster.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at Sacre's career, you should see a few things that are typical of an NBA big.

    First, he started off slowly. As a rookie, he posted the following Efficiency Stats:
    Scoring 4.1 (poor/adequate)
    Passing 1.7 (poor/adequate)
    Hustle 2.7 (solid/good)
    Overall Efficiency: 46.6 (NBA body)

    Second, he improved and showed himself adequate on the court. Most guys near 7' don't embarrass themselves too frequently once they have some seasoning. Check his years 2 and 3 Efficiencies:

    Year 2
    Scoring 5.0 (adequate)
    Passing 2.1 (adequate/solid)
    Hustle 3.3 (good/excellent)
    Efficiency 70.3 (key role player)

    Year 3
    Scoring 4.6 (poor/adequate)
    Passing 2.1 (adequate/solid)
    Hustle 3.3 (good/excellent)
    Efficiency 66 (lower end rotational player)

    Third, we've gotten a pretty good sense of his weaknesses and his likely career trajectory. This season:
    Scoring 4.4 (poor/adequate)
    Passing 2.3 (adequate/solid)
    Hustle 3.3 (good/excellent)
    Efficiency 63 (lower end rotational player)

    Sacre has had essentially one solid season, a year in which he dunked at a massively higher rate than in the remainder of his career (1 dunk per 32 minutes vs. 1 in 75 minutes), a season in which he knocked down the 3-10' shot on a much more consistent basis, and a season in which he managed a mere 12.1 PER and a negative VORP.

    We have also seen some atypical things from Sacre. Despite being drafted at 60th overall, he has been essentially the 30th best player drafted, trending there in total minutes played, points scored, and Win Shares, among his draft peers. If there were a redraft, Sacre would go higher (maybe not 30th, mind you, because the Lakers have been terrible; that terrible team allowed more playing time for Sacre).

    Realistic Utopian Scenario: Sacre plays heavy minutes so he can keep his 3-10' shot well oiled, and he still shoots <50% from the field and <70% from the line. He hustles, sets screens, makes decent decisions, and doesn't hurt the team too much when he's on the court.

    Cold, Hard World Scenario: Sacre's uninspired play can't overcome his physical gifts and the fact that he's apparently a good teammate.

    Best Use: Sacre collects a pay check, stays loose, and plays only when someone is injured for the next half decade or so.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2016
    Cookie and Weezy like this.
  11. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    RYAN KELLY
    Kelly offered Lakers fans the prospects of a more taller, more athletic Luke Walton. He entered the league relatively polished after playing four seasons under Coach K at Duke.

    [​IMG]

    His career got off to a hot start:
    Scoring 5.3 (adequate/solid)
    Passing 2.6 (solid/good)
    Hustle 2.7 (solid/god)
    Overall Efficiency: 66 (lower end rotational player)
    He added a 49% eFG and 55% TS. He was one of the more impressive rookies, especially relative to his draft position (48th overall selection).

    In season two, he shuffled around from position to position, playing at Small Forward (He's 6'11", so that's ridiculous) and Center (He's 230# soaking wet, so that's ridiculous). His number suffered as a result:
    Year 2
    Scoring 4.6 (poor/adequate)
    Passing 2.6 (solid/good)
    Hustle 2.1 (good/excellent)
    Efficiency 49 (NBA body)

    In far more limited minutes this season and totally shunning the SF spot, Kelly has played much more like his rookie season. He isn't shooting nearly as well, but he is shooting a lot more. He's scoring relatively efficiently by keeping his 3pt shots down (relative to his total FGA) and by knocking down shots in the 0-10' range. He's even passing well. Kelly's knock is that he cannot defend, so if his three-point shot isn't falling, and if he's taking more shots within 10' of the basket, he's not spreading defenses. The key question becomes whether his impressive passing can overcome his other weaknesses. It appears they cannot, at least not on a bad team.

    Year 3
    Scoring 5.6 (solid/good)
    Passing 2.5 (solid)
    Hustle 3.1 (good/excellent)
    Efficiency 76 (key roleplayer)

    In terms of raw stats, Kelly is, let's say, the 17th best rookie in the 2013 draft. Awesome value from the 48th pick. He has even played with a positive Value Over Replacement Player. Unlike Sacre, Kelly can probably stick in the league based on talent rather than simply size.

    Realistic Utopian Scenario: Spencer Hawes comes to mind. Hawes posted three good seasons, starting at age 23. He is already on the decline in his career at 27, but he'll be in the league for a few more seasons. At his best, Hawes was a solid balance of rebounding, outside shooting, and passing.

    Cold, Hard World Scenario: There are many stretch fours" who cannot shot. Donte Green and Austin Daye lasted a combined ten seasons in the NBA. This is Kelly's third. The math is simple; the end is near.

    Best Use: Kelly has to be anchored to the PF spot, and he probably needs minutes on a consistent basis to be most effective. He doesn't need a lot of minutes, but he needs the consistency. Is he worth keeping around as a purely offensive player? Not for this team. Not unless we add an awesome Center and some active wings. In such a setup, Kelly could be an effective player for a long time (GSW or SA would maximize his talents).
     
  12. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    2014 Draft: Randle (7), Clarkson (46), Black (UDFA)
    2015 Draft: Russell (2), Nance (27), Brown (34)
     
  13. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    34,633
    Likes Received:
    58,138
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    So Cal
    Offline
    So UDFA for Black .... is that unrestricted free agent who can't wait to get off the Lakers now and as far away from Byron Scott as is humanly possible? He's likely gone?
     
    trodgers likes this.
  14. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    UDFA is an Undrafted Free Agent.
     
  15. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    34,633
    Likes Received:
    58,138
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    So Cal
    Offline
    Do we have any kind of retention rights? He's a free agent this summer, or he could be extended prior to that?

    (I would think he wouldn't be so hot on staying though after getting f***** by Boron this year so far. That setting and scene in Pulp Fiction comes to mind .......except no one came to save him like in the movie)
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2016
    trodgers likes this.
  16. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    28,475
    Likes Received:
    62,061
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    He's got basically the same thing Clarkson has except he's not going to come close to the "starters provision".

    We've got his Early Bird Rights and his cap hold is 1.8 million or something like that. He's an RFA this summer if he lasts that long.

    I've seen rumors that Byron's deep seeded hatred of him might get Tarik traded at the deadline.
     
  17. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,976
    Likes Received:
    18,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professor of Humanities
    Location:
    Orlando
    Offline
    We have the rights to make Tarik stay. But Byron does seem to hate him. Best to lose Byron and let the new coach build that bridge.
     
    abeer3, Cookie and Weezy like this.
  18. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    34,633
    Likes Received:
    58,138
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    So Cal
    Offline
    Boron should be traded .... no ..... make that canned at the deadline, due to everyone's deep seated hatred of him.

    :Tabarnak:
     
    Toklat and Cookie like this.
  19. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    16,172
    Likes Received:
    31,056
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    Thinking about it tonight; Anthony Brown = Khris Middleton. Measurements are comparable. MIddleton was drafted 39th; Brown 34th. MIddleton didn't have a great first year but consistently improved his spot-up shooting and off the dribble game. I'll look more into it tomorrow, but that would be fantastic if Brown can turn into a Middleton type of player...
     
    trodgers likes this.
  20. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    30,233
    Likes Received:
    74,597
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Making you asset free AND happy by 2030
    Location:
    Davos, Switzerland
    Offline
    [​IMG]

    He should never get another coaching job again. Except maybe Junior High. Those kids REALLY need to man up.
     
    Cookie likes this.

Share This Page