2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

DEFENSIVE INTERIOR
Current Grade: (18/30) D-*
Oakland players not named Khalil Mack have struggled to pressure the QB, but they have been close to average against the run for some time. From 2011 to 2017, the Raiders' run D fell between 13th and 23rd best. This season, they were 30th. There's hope in the form of some young defenders, but the combination of poor run D and terrible pass rush dooms this group for the present.

Turnover is responsible for some of the struggles. Their best run-stuffer for years, Justin Ellis, struggled to a 47.5 rating, worst among all qualified Raiders at the position. Ony Gabe Wright (44.3) was worse. What helped Oakland was solid depth, with Frostee Rucker rating 83rd (but at Edge), PJ Hall coming in at 83rd, Clinton McDonald at 81st, and Johnathan Hankins at 68th. Rookie Maurice Hurst finished 51st, giving the Raiders their only top 60 defender up front.

On the Roster (2018)
Frostee Rucker, Clinton McDonald, Justin Ellis, Johnathan Hankins, Gabe Wright, Eddie Vanderdoes, Maurice Hurst, PJ Hall.

Under Contract (2019+)
Hurst, Hall, Ellis, Vanderdoes.

Positional Strength: D-
With four players under contract, the Raiders have a promising core of rookies Hurst and Hall. Ellis is arguably the best at the spot, but he missed most of the season with injury, and Vanderdoes showed flashes last season.

Recommendation
Gruden has praised the leadership of Rucker, and McDonald and Hankins have both played well enough to warrant a re-signing, if the terms are agreeable (they made $2m and $3m, respectively, this season).

Ideally, Oakland brings back Hankins and either Rucker or McDonald and drafts someone up front, ideally someone who can line up at the edge or inside if needed. This is a position that could very quickly turn into a strength for the Raiders. If Hall and Hurst grow as projected, the position could be a C or B- by season's end next year.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

Mike Mayock as GM... Like it. Always respected his NFL Draft analysis on every player picked.

 

I love it. His analysis is fun and intelligent, and his talent evaluation is excellent.

 

EDGE RUSHER
Current Grade: (9/30) F*
Focusing on the players who finished the season in the silver and black, the Edge spot is in dreadful shape. Arden Key had ONE sack, and that is the sum of all edge rushers under contract. Key managed 11 QB hits, to lead the team by a wide margin, but no other edge rusher manged to record even two (unless Rucker counts; he had four).

Key could almost never seal the deal, but he winds up ranked 95th according to PFF, giving the Raiders their only ranked edge defender. Again, unless Rucker counts. No one else is under contract at the position, and they need great amounts of help.

On the Roster (2018)
Jacquies Smith (injured), James Cowser**, Kony Ealy, Damontre Moore (waived), Arden Key

Under Contract (2019+)
Key

Positional Strength: F
Key needs three things in order to make a massive jump in sack total. First, he needs to add greater strength; too many times, QBs slipped out of his grasp. Second, he needs better angles to the QB. Third, he needs someone to be there on the opposite side to pick up the scraps when he creates havoc. This could come from a pass rush up the middle, but an edge player is ideal the task. Key is promising, and he has the makings of a top flight pass rusher, but the position has no help and no depth.

Recommendation
The Raiders must get someone to pursue the QB, and they have to do it early in the draft. If you're looking for a FA who won't command $15m+ per year, Ezekiel Ansah is possibility. Frank Clark is another possibility. Note that edge rushers stand to make massive money in today's NFL.

Whatever is going to happen here, not a bad move is to draft early and sign a veteran DE.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

...Mayock did admit that he will need help in navigating salary negotiations and the cap.

 

Definitely. I heard that Reggie’s numbers guy is still there. But how hard can it be to find a Cal grad who can do that?

 

I hope you're right about the numbers guy. After that it will be up to Gruden's pitch.

 

EDGE RUSHER
Current Grade: (25/45) F*
At least the Raiders have several players under contract at the LB position going into the 2018 offseason, even if some of them have been underwhelming. Tahir Whitehead was a big disappointment, and he ranks just 68th on PFF. Nicholas Morrow and Marquel Lee, ranked 76th and 55th, are also under contract. Add in Kyle Wilber, and the Raiders return four LBs.

To put into perspective just how unimpressive the LB corps have been, check out these dreadful numbers: Whitehead with 1 INT. Whitehead and Morrow with 1 FF each. Nicholas Morrow with 1 sack. That's it for production from the LB spot, cumulatively. Several Free Agents could single handedly match or exceed those numbers.

On the Roster (2018)
Kyle Wilber, Tahir Whitehead, Shilique Calhoun, Nicholas Morrow, Marquel Lee, Jason Cabinda, Cayson Collins**

Under Contract (2019+)
Whitehead, Wilber, Morrow, Lee

Positional Strength: F
Morrow and Lee are both promising prospects. Whitehead's limitations could be concealed with two strong backers beside him - ideally one that can cover. The LBs didn't make the huge impact plays, but they did find themselves often in the right spot, with Whitehead totaling 126 tackles, Lee picking up 69, and Morrow notching 43. There is no internal help except the potential growth of Lee and Morrow.

Recommendation
The Raiders could really use a top flight LB, and they could either address the need through the draft or Free Agency. Gruden does seem to like vets at the LB spot, and there are some excellent (but expensive) options. I list some here, along with their 2018 salary or "market value"* and their PFF ranking: Clay Matthews 13.2m (66th), Avery Williamson $7.5m (17th), Derrick Morgan $7.2m (74th), KJ Wright $7.2m (unranked but a good rating; missed time with injury), Jadeveon Clowney 16.6* (8th) and Shaquil Barrett (RFA, 23rd), but both of them would be expensive.

Oakland could look to add a LB early, as any draft choice would likely come more cheaply than any impact backer signed as a Free Agent. Likely one of the top four picks will be a LB. I could also see the Raiders adding a veteran OLB at a decent price tag.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

Current Walter Football Mock Draft
4th: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
--Brown was graded 89.8 at PFF last I saw, and he had managed 23 pressures and 29 stops, making him a solid run and pass defender.
---Putting him up front with Hall, Hurst, Ellis, and Key would be a huge addition.

25th: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
--Sweat posted 35 stops and 44 pressures, rated 87.1 against the run and 85.1 overall. Another strong run/pass defender.
---Sweat could be that player opposite Key to create havoc and clean up the madness a bit. He would also bolster pass defense from our edge.

27th: Damien Harris, RB, Bama
--Rushed for 3013 yards, received for 404, scored 25 TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, and more than 3 after contact.
---If Oakland does choose a running back early, Alabama RBs are a solid bet. Mark Ingram (7605 yards, 55 TDs), Eddie Lacey (4561 yards, 29 TDs), TJ Yeldon (3174 yards, 12 TDs), Trent Richardson (2944 yards, 19 TDs), Derrick Henry (2665 yards, 23 TDs), and Kenyan Drake (2120 yards, 15 TDs) are all Bama RBs taken since 2000. Harris seems a reliable receiver, too, which makes this pick make more sense. Still, I'd rather see Oakland pick up a WR.

35th: Will Grier, QB, West Virginia
-I think this pick is insane, and the next pick is a CB, so let's look at that:

35th: Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State
--Through 7 games this season, he had been targeted 54 times, but he broke up 8 of them and intercepted 2. He ended up with 3 INTs, 11 defended passes, a force fumble, and a career high 37 solo tackles.
---Conley is rounding into form. Nelson is a work in progress. Oruwariye would slot in nicely next to Conley.

35th: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
--His 335 coverage snaps led to just 25 receptions, good enough for an 81.1 overall grade.
---Joseph and Harris are both promising, but there's no reason not to bolster the secondary.

 

Best Prospects
-based on consensus of a few different sites - like Walter Football, Pro Football Focus, and Draft Analyst. Okay, exactly those sites.

6-points
Josh Allen, OLB
Quinnen Williams, DT

5.5 points
Deonte Thompson, S

5 points
Derrick Brown, DT
Dre'Mont Jones, DT
Byron Murphy, CB
Jachai Polite, OLB
Devin White, ILB
Christian Wilkins, DT

4.5 points
Deandre Baker, CB
Dexter Lawrence, DT
Jonah Lawrence, DT
Drew Lock, QB

4 points
Nick Bosa, DE
Raekwon Davis, DT
Clelin Ferrell, DE
Rashan Gary, DE
Dwayne Haskins, QB
Justin Herbert, QB
Ed Oliver, DE
Jeffery Simmons, DI
Jerry Tillery, DT

3.5 points
Taylor Rapp, S

3 points
Zach Allen, Edge
Noah Fant, TE
Damien Harris, RB
Daniel Jones, QB
Julian Love, CB
David Montgomery, RB
Kyler Murray, QB
Irv Smith, TE
Greedy Williams, CB
Mack Wilson, ILB

There are 34 players here, so, roughly, the Raiders should end up with four of these players. Honestly, there are some incredible talents here, so I'm pumped.

 

Offseason Key Dates
February 12th, Free Agency begins.
February 26th, Combine begins.
April 25th, Draft begins.


I put together the mocks from a few decent sites: NFL.com, SB Nation, CBS, Walter Football, and Draft Site. I took just the last four picks of the first round rather than looking at draft order and seeing which guys were linked to Oakland. If there was a QB there, I went forward one position to give Oakland a non-QB. Here are the names that came up multiple times:
Noah Fant TE, Iowa
Dexter Lawrence DT Clemson
Amani Oruwariye, CB, PSU
Deionte Thompson, S, Bama
Mack Wilson, LB, Bama

Let’s just suppose Oakland takes those four defensive players, locks up Cook at TE, and looks for WR later in the draft. Here are the defenders currently under contract for 2019:

Defensive Front: Ellis, Hurst, Vanderdoes, Wright, Key, Dexter Lawrence
… Lawrence: can push the pocket, run stuffer; can start

Linebackers: Whitehead, Wilber, Lee, Morrow, Cowser, Collins, Mack Wilson
…Wilson: strong coverage LB, immediate upgrade there.

Corners: Conley, N. Nelson, Dorleant, Gafford, Amani Oruwariye
… Oruwariye: picked off seven passes in his final two seasons at PSU, defended 18 passes in that stretch; good to excellent in coverage

Safeties: Joseph, Meander, Leavitt, Deionte Thompson
…Thompson: can rush, can defend, and can do damage with the ball in his hands after INTs

Raiders bolster every position group on defense.

I think the Raiders, regardless of Free Agency, would have a much improved unit:

Defensive Front: With Ellis, Hurst, and Lawrence in the middle, and Key outside, that would be a solid group against the run with the possibility of putting better pressure on the QB. Raiders need a pass-rushing DE.

Linebacker: Wilson could help the group cover much better, and with Whitehead, Lee, and Morrow, they wouldn’t be nearly the liability they were. But it’s still a key spot for an upgrade.

CBs: Conley and Oruwariye would make some foolish plays due to inexperience, but they’d be upgraded. Nelson would be a solid third CB.

Safety: Joseph and Thompson should get the job done.

 

A positive from 2018:

https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/20...of-the-best-safeties-in-the-afc-west-in-2018/

Monster passing numbers in the AFC West, making it tough for DBs:
KC went for 5126 and 50 TDs
SD went for 4316 and 32 TDs
OAK went for 4057 and 19 TDs
DEN went for 3930 and 19 TDs

That's an average of 4356 yards and 30 TDs per team.

 

Say no to Kyler Murray... No to Antonio Brown. Too much drama. Bell? A shot in the dark but I'd take him within reason.

 

I think I’d steer clear of all of them, as Bell wants $45m guaranteed. He’s good, but that’s a lotta cash.

 

Okay. So we're in Oakland another year.

FAs to avoid (unless a 1-year deal, which they wouldn't sign):
Antonio Brown (headache and too much money)
Le'Veon Bell (too much money)

Some intriguing possibilities:
Devin Funchess
Mayock was high on him during the draft. He's probably not a WR1, but with a wildly inconsistent Newton at QB, he posted some solid numbers, averaging 40 receptions, 558 yards, and 5 TDs. He's only 25. I wouldn't break the bank for him, but he's better than Streater.

Dante Fowler
I don't know what he's looking for, in terms of money, but he should be paid as an average starter. He's totaled 16 sacks, 18 TFL, and 27 QB hits over his three seasons, and though he hasn't started too many games, he has missed only 1.

 

BTW, I did all my player rankings before the Combine for a reason. I want to see if the Combine does anything meaningful in predicting successes.

That said, Metcalf and Boykin - ridiculous showing at the combine.
And some 300-pounder ran some absurd time. Oh, yeah, Quinnen Williams.

 

BTW, here are my best bet prospects

Tier 1
Josh Allen
Quinnen Williams

Tier 2
Dre'Mont Jones
Jachai Polite
Devin White
Christian Wilkins

Tier 3
Deandre Baker
Nick Bosa
Clelin Ferrell
Rashan Gary
Dwayne Haskins
Dexter Lawrence
Drew Lock
Byron Murphy
Ed Oliver
Jeffery Simmons
Jerry Tillery
Jonah Williams

Tier 4
Derrick Brown
Josh Jacobs
Julian Love
Kyler Murray
Irv Smith Jr.
Deionte Thompson
Greedy Williams

That's 25 players. There are a few more Tier 5 players.

 

Denzelle Good
Signed
1.8m for one year
Hoping this isn't guaranteed. He was the 8th-best OL ON THE RAIDERS last year. Yikes. He would currently be only the 6th OL under contract, as far as I can tell, and I'm not sure he's worth the salary.

 

I did say within reason...

Chris Warren...

 

Raiders make some RFA tenders.

Jalen Richard (2nd round): he was arguably their best RB over the course of the season. I get it. His tender is $3.1m.

Daryl Worley (2nd round): he graded out at 55.6, their fifth best CB, ranked 111th in the league. I like him, but that's too high a tender. His tender is $3.1m. That's about six times higher than his salary from last year. Maybe they're trying to lock up a young CB. I get it.

Erik Harris gets an original round tender, $2m. He's well worth the tender.

I'd like to see Richard come back on a friendly deal, but even if it's one year, $3.1m, that's fine. Same with Worley, but I'd rather give him a two or three year deal at closer to 2m a season. Harris at one year and $2m is fine. We haven't seen enough of him to commit longterm.