2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

DJ Swearinger was released. He's currently the 10th-rated S on PFF. A team claiming him would owe only $180k.

I'm not sure how waiver pickups work. He has a 2019 year on contract for only $4m. Could the Raiders add him now and have that contract kick in? If so, it's a bit tricky (he was with Washington), but it would be a huge upgrade.

 

Raiders looking to close out the season and possibly the franchise in Oakland - and they face a despised rival. It has all the makings of a good game, but I don't see Oakland winning. Broncos are -3 in Vegas.

Broncos 26
Raiders 20

 

Raiders' Single Season Leaders - Note
Carr is within striking distance of the second spot on the single-season passing leaders in franchise history. With 303 yards, he would hit 4000. With 322, he would pass Carson Palmer for 2nd all-time. With 24 completions, he'd move into second all-time, too.

Cook's 63 receptions and Richard's 62 are 35th best and 37th best in franchise history. 73 grabs gets a player into the top 25 all-time. Cook has a remote shot at 1000 yards, which would give him one of 28 1000-yard seasons in franchise history.

 

I’m ready. Let’s get this s*** going!

 

No Hurst or Conley. Bleh.

 

Brutal false start on Ateman. Cost the O big time.

 

What offensive line was that? Guys did a great job against one of the best pass rushes.

 

Agreed... Carr's passing though mostly short were accurate. Him and Nelson are now in sync. If he stays, there is a need for another wide-out that can separate and stretch the D. Martin is looking rejuvenated as well.

Alas, we have no pass rush. Joseph is playing well. I went from cursing Harris for getting beat for Denver's second TD (Turn your effin' head!) to praising him for that game sealing interception.

 

1st Round Draft wish list...

1 - Edge rusher (play opposite Key)
2 - Wide Receiver (keep Jordy Nelson at 2, Marcel Ateman plays slot)
3 - Safety (replace Reggie Nelson and play next to Joseph)

 

We have four top 40 picks.

DE/DI/LB - at least two of these.
WR/CB

I think Harris and Joseph can handle the S spot.

 

Safety help via free agency...

Back-up QB. Nathan Peterman (shakes head, rolls eyes...)

 

Season's almost over, and I'm planning a position-by-position analysis of the team. I'll start here with QB, because it's pretty settled, in my view.

 

QUARTERBACK (11/15)*
Here is the list of QBs who have played for the Raiders since Gannon's injury: Collins (7 wins), Tuiasosopo (0 wins), Walter (2 wins), Brooks (0 wins), McCown (2 wins), Culpepper (2 wins), Russell (7 wins), Gradkowski (3 wins), Frye (1 win), Boller (0 wins), Palmer (8 wins), Leinart (0 wins), Pryon (3 wins), McGloin (1 win), Flynn (0 wins), Schaub (0 wins), Cook (0 wins), and Carr (32 wins). That's seventeen QBs in fourteen seasons, and only one of them has stuck around to win double digit games.

Carr is approaching several career milestones in the silver and black, and he has posted arguably his second best season after a horrific start. In fact, in Carr's first six games, he had 7 TDs and 8 INTs, with a passer rating of 89.4. Since then, he has 12 TDs and 0 INTs, with a 101.4 passer rating. The Raiders have won 3 of their last 6, and Carr is firmly in the middle of the pack for QBs this season. In my totally fabricated QB Impact stat, he is now third all-time during the regular season for the Raiders, with his 60.8 trailing Lamonica (76.8) and Gannon (83.8). He is a franchise QB, he's under contract, and he should be the QB going forward.

On the Roster (2018)
Derek Carr, AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman**

Under Contract (2019+)
Derek Carr, AJ McCarron

Positional Strength
C: Solid starter, two backups with NFL starting experience.

Recommendation
If the Raiders can get out from under McCarron's $5m hit next season (I think they can buy him out with $900k and no dead money - per Spotrac.com), they should look for a more experienced vet. Somewhat surprisingly, Gruden has burned through at least two vet backups in Oakland this season. Maybe he's fond of younger QBs who can be molded.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

RUNNINGBACK
Grade: F*
The Raiders have had some success at RB this season. Doug Martin has averaged 4.2 yards in posting 738 yards from scrimmage, including posting 124-524-4 over the past nine games. Marshawn Lynch has averaged 4.3 per carry in rushing for 1267 yards and 10 scores over the past two seasons. And Jalen Richard has 258 yards on the ground and 590 through the air. All three are currently rated in the top 46 at the position, according to Pro Football Focus.

Here's the problem: none of these players are under contract for next season. The only under contract options are DeAndre Washington (unranked), Keith Smith (not much of a runner or receiver), and Chris Warren (utterly untested).

On the Roster (2018)
Doug Martin, DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, Keith Smith, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Warren, James Butler**, Chris Yurachek**

Under Contract (2019+)
DeAndre Washington, Keith Smith, Chris Warren

*Positional Strength
F: Smith might be a solid FB, but with just Washington and Warren under contract, the Raiders have no proven runner.

Recommendation
The raiders need to improve over what's currently under contract, and they might be able to add a quality RB through the draft without taking away from addressing other positions of need. By the third round, they could snag a RB if they so desired. Exploring bringing back Martin and/or Richard are strong priorities if they don't draft one. Martin has been surprisingly good, and if he can be brought in for less than $2M, he's a good short-term answer. If he's looking for $3-4M or multiple years, I look elsewhere. Richard is a top-flight receiving back, and as an RFA, he's a good candidate to stick around, but he'll receive a big pay jump, probably. Lynch may well retire.

There are some good FA options with some risk - Jay Ajayi (3.6m value per Spotrac), Peyton Barber (he's younger; is he better?), Tevin Coleman (actually average rated on PFF), and Latavius Murray (he's been steady his whole career). Of this group, my preference would be for Murray, followed by Ajayi, Coleman, and Barber, in that order. I'd also look to move Washington. He's not a runner, he's not a good blocker, and if you have Richard, you have the better player. A new RB, Richard, Warren, and Smith make a serviceable crew for next season.

Re-signing Richard and Martin would increase the grade to a C. So would re-signing Richard and drafting a RB in the first 40 picks. Note: Lynch and Richard would form a B-rated tandem.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

RECEIVER (19/45) F
Here's something that won't surprise fans of the Raiders: Oakland has no WR rated by PFF in the top 50 at the position. Here's something that might surprise: they have four WRs currently rated in the top 100 at the position. Jordy Nelson leads the way with a 57th rank, followed by Brandon LaFell, Martavis Bryant (who is no longer qualified), and Seth Roberts at 93. The problem here is that only Nelson, Roberts, and unranked Keon Hatcher are under contract for 2019.

Nelson has been seriously inconsistent, with a tale of three seasons: through 5 games, he was trending 64 receptions, 1014 yards, and 10 scores. Through the next 5 he trended 16 receptions, 115, and 0 TD (extrapolated out to 16 games!), but he has looked to finish strong with a trend over his last four of 116 receptions, 1232 yards, but zero TDs. Seth Roberts arguably gives WR3 production, and this might end up being his best season, and he still kills with terrible penalties and drops. Hatcher has been targeted twice this season. Ateman is a fan favorite, but his production leaves much to be desired: his 28 targets have netted 147 yards and 1 TD. Harris has been excellent on returns, but his 6 targets show he's seldom involved in the passing game. LaFell and Bryant both showed glimpses in their times on the team, with LaFell's starts trending 38-432 and 6 TDs and Bryant trending 38-532 but no scores. Bryant faces a possible lengthy suspension, and LaFell suffered a severe injury.

On the Roster (2018)
Brandon LaFell, Jordy Nelson, Saeed Blacknall**, Martavis Bryant, Marcell Ateman, Seth Roberts, Dwayne Harris, Keon Hatcher, Johnny Holton**, Rico Gafford (Is he a DB now?)

Under Contract (2019+)
Nelson, Roberts, Hatcher

Positional Strength
F: Nelson has rounded into a D-rating, but Roberts and Hatcher are both Fs. There's not really help elsewhere on the roster either.

Recommendation
WR is a position of need. The combination of current standing (F) and roster options (F) spells doom. I could see Oakland bringing back one of the following: LaFell, Ateman, and Bryant. Ateman is probably currently the least good, but he's also a combination of not suspended and not injured. Oakland needs to add at least one WR to the mix, in addition to these.

There are some good, experienced FA options available, including costly ones: Randall Cobb (reunite him with Nelson) and Golden Tate (one of my favorites; would suit Oakland's passing game perfectly). There are also younger, less high-profile WRs available in FA. The Raiders need to add a WR, and they should do so via the draft AND via Free Agency. Gruden loves his vets.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

NFL Players with 10+ QB Hits, 3 or fewer Sacks, sorted by HITS to SACK ratio.

Frankie Luvu 11 / 3 (3.7)
Arik Armstead 12 / 3 (4.0)
Derek Barnett 11 / 2.5 (4.4)
Malik Jackson 10 / 2 (5.0)
Adrian Clayborn 13 / 2.5 (5.2)
Quinton Jefferson 14 / 2 (7.0)
Kareem Martin 10 / 1 (10.0)
Arden Key 10 / 1 (10.0)
Lawrence Guy 10 / 0 (infinite)

I'm blown away by 1) how often Key gets a hand on a QB and 2) how often he can't even get close to a sack.

 

TIGHT END (19/30) D
Maybe the Raiders have assembled an impressive group of Tight Ends. Maybe Gruden really knows how to use Tight Ends. Maybe the truth is somewhere in-between. The Raiders currently have two top six-rated Tight Ends in Cook (6) and Smith (5). And Darren Waller's 70.5 rating would likely be in the top 20 as well.

Lee Smith will likely return, with a $3.35M salary, and Derek Carrier ($1.7M) is also under contract. That's a total of 23 targets under contract. They've made the most of those targets, with 4 combined TDs, but both are more blocking than receiving TEs. Jared Cook has posted monster numbers since coming to Oakland: he established a career high with 54 receiving yards last season and has set all new highs this season with 65 grabs, 868 yards, and 6 scores. Waller has been dynamic, taking his four touches 73 yards (21 on the ground) and nearly scoring.

On the Roster (2018)
Jared Cook, Lee Smith, Derek Carrier, Darren Waller

Under Contract (2019+)
Smith, Carrier

Positional Strength
D: Smith is an A, and Carrier is currently an F. Cook is also an A, and Waller would likely score in the C-range if he were qualified. One problem here is quantifying the blocking contributions of the TE position. Is Carrier a good blocker? Is he elite? At any rate, this is a position that is in poor shape with just two under contract, but unless Cook is going to look for a ridiculous contract, he's the easy solution. He would push Oakland to their first (and only?) A-rated position.

Recommendation
Cook is the big question here. He has earned an average of around $4m over the past four seasons. He's 31, but his stats over the past two seasons speak for themselves: he has the 34th most receptions, 29th most receiving yards, and 50th most receiving TDs. Those are 4th, 5th, and 10th among TEs. His previous deal was two years, $10.6m. Oakland could afford to extend a two-year deal with a respectable pay raise; let's say 2 / $13m.

Oakland has had some struggles with Tight Ends in the draft. On one hand, when they chose early-round players, they have not gotten value; on the other hand, they've gotten great value for a short time from lower picks. The only TEs I've seen much from in the upcoming draft are Kaden Smith (Stanford), Alize Mack (UND), Tommy Sweeney (BC), Matt Sokol (MSU), Tyler Petite (USC). I'm sure I'll see plenty of Irv Smith Jr. tomorrow. I like Mack, but he's a late round pick who hasn't lived up to the Irish TE rep. Kaden Smith might be the kind of player who can block and catch, and if he's available at the top of round 4, I would love to see Oakland grab him.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

OFFENSIVE LINE
Current Grade: (36/75) F*
The one-vaunted offensive line is in shambles. Age, injuries, and inexperience have turned a massive team strength into a serious liability. Still, there's a good deal of hope in sight. Players will recover from injuries in the offseason, and the young guys will all grow in experience and strength after an offseason to digest this year's lessons.

Rodney Hudson is arguably the best Raider. Currently rated third among Centers, Hudson's contract is up, however. Among other qualified linemen, Oakland features Gabe Jackson (17th-rated OG), Kelechi Osemele (59th-rated OG), oft-injured Donald Penn (74th OT), and rookies Kolton MIller and Brandon Parker (80th and 81st among OTs). Sprinkle in some respectable play from Justin Murray, David Sharpe, TJ Clemmings, and Denzelle Good and some poor play from Jon Feliciano and Chaz Green, and you've got a huge group with tons of turnover and inconsistencies.

On the Roster (2018)
Donald Penn, Rodney Hudson, Kelechi Osemele, Gabe Jackson, TJ Clemmings, Denzelle Good, Jon Feliciano, Ian Silberman**, Chaz Green, Justin Murray, Kolton Miller, Denver Kirkland**, Brandon Parker, David Sharpe, and Jamar McGloster.

Under Contract (2019+)
Jackson, Osemele, Miller, Parker, Sharpe, Penn.

Positional Strength
F: Solid play from the Guards (Jackson a B, Osemele a D after dealing with injuries), poor play from Tackles (everyone an F), and no Hudson under contract for next season. The Raiders can count on some growth for next season, but they must bolster with a Hudson re-signing.

Recommendation
Hudson must be re-signed. No questions. Donald Penn will make $8.4M next season, and he hasn't earned it this season. He's also aging, so the Raiders may ask to rework his deal if he wants to stick around. Some decisions are relatively easy: pencil in Miller and Parker at OT, Jackson and Osemele at G, and put Hudson back in the middle. Note that that group would be a D-rated group, even if everyone struggled as much as they did this season (Osemele with injuries, OTs with inexperience). More likely, the position would bump to a C, meaning it wouldn't be a liability. Other players who have shown flashes: Ian Silberman, Justin Murray; David Sharpe, TJ Clemmings, Denzelle Good; and Feliciano's familiarity and versatility make him interesting if he understand that he's not commanding a serious salary.

Oakland will probably grab an OL at some point in the draft, but they have laid the foundation for the future with the 2018 draft. So any OL taken in the draft should be a later round pick.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad