2016-17 Scouting Reports - Rydjorker Edtion!

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by LaVarBallsDad, Aug 20, 2016.

  1. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    16,172
    Likes Received:
    31,056
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    Good Afternoon LB,

    Rydjorker use to post on "Club Lakers." He provided scouting reports of every players the Lakers drafted or obtained through Free Agency. After Club Lakers disappeared, so did his scouting reports. I knew he posted on LG; @therealdeal suggested PMing him and getting his permission to provide his content here for Lakers Ball Users. I messaged him and it took him awhile to get back too me, but he did today; and he gave me the permission to provide HIS CONTENT.

    So, I'll update this thread as we go along with scouting reports, and you can provide feedback. Disagree, agree, etc. Also, provide feedback or make changes if you guys want all of the scouting report posted or just a link given; some of the scouting reports can take up some space.
     
    thkthebest, abeer3, alam1108 and 11 others like this.
  2. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    16,172
    Likes Received:
    31,056
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    Mozgov’s money is made on defense (81st percentile), with his best attributes being very good rim protection, both deterring and altering shots (76th percentile deterring; 64th altering shots) and also with general shotblocking (64th percentile). His ability to deter at the rim is so strong that it counteracts his weaker defensive attributes, but those weaker attributes also limit his playing time and in the advent of smallball, and can relegate him to specific matchups. Mozgov is foul prone (39th percentile), which limits his playing time, but on top of that, he has a high center of gravity. This manifests itself in a very poor steal rate (21st percentile) and significantly worse defense at the perimeter--Mozgov relinquishes all sorts of runners and mid-range jumpers to opposing offensive players (25th percentile, 16th percentile respectively) and they tend to cash in (40th percentile, 35th percentile). Mozgov is better at guarding threes but he’s more quite weak at defending right corner threes. If Mozgov coupled his rim deterrence with at least good rebounding, he could be a quintessential early 2000s at-paint center, but he’s only at the 47th percentile in defensive boards. Mozgov’s blase rebounding ability, possible foul trouble and inability to defend quicker players at the perimeter means he can be played off the court in smallball matchups, and that was exactly what happened in his last year with Cleveland. Still, he’s well into the net positive on defense, but he needs to have another player cover up for his weaknesses or be used in the right situations to be fully optimized.

    On offense, Mozgov is significantly weaker (41st percentile) and has zero creation ability to speak of (only in the 12th percentile in unassisted shots, 21st percentile in assist ratio, and 19th percentile in assist/turnover ratio). So despite some interesting tools on offense, that hinders his scoring (45th percentile). Mozgov’s best attributes are 2-point percentage (68th percentile) at the behest of strong at-rim finishing (71st percentile in shots attempted, 69th percentile conversion) which is due to a very potent dunking game (81st percentile). Mozgov’s actual dunking needs work, however, as his percentages are in the 80s most of the time (50th percentile). Mozgov corrals a decent number of offensive boards as well (59th percentile), but as like with his dunking, there’s a caveat: in this case, he lacks a quick second jump, often bringing the ball back out to reset (only 28th percentile in tip-ins). Mozgov completes a good at-rim profile with decent ability to get to the line (56th percentile) and even better ability to cash in free throws (63rd percentile). So Mozgov can finish with flair what is created for him, get a few offensive boards, and draw a few fouls, but that’s offset by spiffy dunking percentages, a lack of tip-ins, and meh layup percentages (46th percentile). So the overall at-rim picture is interesting, but there is also some taketh away here.

    Read rest at link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZrQ1ij0uI80_Dp-0QgM4q5UuFmrXLbFOiM4ZXxA78GU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#
     
  3. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    16,172
    Likes Received:
    31,056
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    Brandon Ingram:

    Ingram’s raw statistical score at the end wasn’t interesting--he ranked about ninth or tenth in my initial run, as his statistics in a vacuum did not jump out of the page--but after accounting for position (treating him as a wing player) and accounting for upside, he leapfrogged over many players. At the end, he still ranked behind Ben Simmons, as Simmons’ raw score was insanely high, even though Simmons’ (treated as a big) had a worse defensive and upside score due to his lack of blocks by position. Whereas Simmons might have peripheral issues as a big, Ingram’s is slotted more comfortably as a wing, and thus makes up points there.

    And we can see why--Ingram is a near 6’10”, which is huge for a wing player, and he possesses the requisite three point conversion volume--2.6 threes per 40 minutes--to play the position. He’s got a big wingspan, at 7’3”, which should in theory make him a very good defender at the wing position--despite his reasonable but not top notch defensive playmaking numbers. Similarly, Ingram’s a good, although not great, athlete--he has a good dunk rate, in the top third among wings, dunking on 16% of his at-rim shots, which actually puts him in fair company with athletic freaks like Jaylen Brown and Troy Williams. He’s also in the top third of wings in overall athleticism, but he isn’t in the rarefied athletic air of a Brown or Williams because he racks up fewer unassisted at-rim shots than those guys in a per-40 minute basis. Ingram also does an excellent job of avoiding fouls, while padding a reasonable number of steals and blocks. An oversized wing with long arms and good athleticism was what put him in the 85th percentile on defense in my draft ratings, so I can see an avenue for him being a top notch defender, especially since he has these attributes as the youngest player in the draft (at just 18 years old when training camp starts). The only real blemish is that he doesn’t get too many defensive boards for his size.

    Ingram’s raw upside is so high because he combines athleticism with long distance shooting--Ingram is also in the top third in three point conversion volume among wings--and combined with his top third athleticism made him 6th in overall raw upside among wing players. Again, he isn’t a blow-away guy in either athleticism or three point volume, but he combines both in a way few players do.

    As with his defense, Ingram is also projected top notch on offense--in fact, near the 90th percentile as wing among this year’s draft class. As discussed, he’s a good athlete, rock-solid in both dunking and at-rim creation. In spite of that very optimistic projection, as discussed, his numbers do paint a few issues. One of his concerns is a lack of strength--despite good athletic markers, he only shot 58.8% at the rim, a subpar number for any size, but especially for his size--combined with his relative paucity of at-rim shots, that is why Ingram shot a very poor 46.4% on 2-pointers. Ingram is very much a jumpshooter--three-quarters of his shots were jumpers, doing a solid job of mixing his personal creation with assisted shots (58.8% of his jumpers were assisted, in the top half of wings). His splits are actually obvious--his threes are always in the catch-and-shoot variety, while his mid-rangers are virtually almost all pull-ups. He’s an excellent three point shooter (41%) with volume to back it up, but with possibly more concerns than D’Angelo Russell here (Russell hit more threes at college with a questionable 75% free throw percentage, but Ingram’s is even more questionable--with a free throw percentage at 68%, so there can be some shooting regression). Ingram did have a sturdy mid-range pull-up, at 37%, so that is in his favor. Ingram is a solid passer, although his numbers weren’t particularly special here. Overall despite of the concerns, his scoring chops by three point volume at his age, and at his size, are a major plus, and are more predictive than issues surrounding the relative sustainability of his shooting and finishing problems.

    Overall, Ingram provides rock-solid abilities on both ends of the court--perhaps he doesn’t have the offensive wizardry of a Ben Simmons playing the power forward position, but he provides more well-roundedness and a smoother fit as a wing player, with very good upside to grow. He’s considered an extremely coachable, humble kid as well, and earns many points in the intangibles department, something that has been an open question with Simmons. He’s definitely a very good pick, even for team needs, as the Lakers need to fill in the wing position with much needed floor spacing, especially from a player with size, as well as good defensive potential, another area the Lakers need a wholesale improvement in. And of course, and he offers a chance to become a real superstar.
     
  4. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    16,172
    Likes Received:
    31,056
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    Luol Deng

    Deng is a 31 year old grizzled vet, who, at 6’8” 220 lbs and with the further advent of smallball, started playing smallball PF full time this past season, although it was also forced upon him with Chris Bosh’s injury. Three-quarters of Deng’s 33 minutes per game this past season came at power forward--the season prior, he was a hybrid who played only a third of minutes at PF, and two seasons ago he was a full time SF. That is how much the league has changed in the course of three years. A year after struggling with his bit minutes at PF, Deng actually did well in this role, seeing a net 2.3 PER gain over his opponent this season. At this point, we can expect the Lakers to rotate him between both forward positions, and considering that he was never a fast-twitch type or much of an athlete, he might age more gracefully in a smallball big position.

    On a statistical basis, Deng doesn’t particularly excel at anything, but doesn’t take away anything either. In sixteen various statistical measures, over his past three seasons, Deng is only below the 30th percentile in one category (three point rate) and only above the 60th percentile in two categories (offensive rebounding and not fouling). But Deng’s best attribute is that he just brings top notch mojo on offense--despite not particularly excelling at anything, he finds ways to fit into any 5-man group he’s placed in, whether at small forward or power forward, as he’s in the 97th percentile on offensive efficiency (!!!!) over the past three seasons. His ability to juice up an offense in any scheme has endeared him to many coaches, and even last year with Miami in his age 31 season, he was 59th in offensive efficiency, ahead of even Kyrie Irving and Karl Anthony-Towns.

    Deng is a solid scorer with pretty good 2-point percentages and free throw rate while limiting turnovers, and as mentioned he excels at offensive rebounding. In respects he’s like a mini big-man who uses strength and savvy, and indeed he lacks the sort of predictive stats that the league is trending towards with their hybrid forwards--Deng rarely takes threes, and is only middling in conversion rate, and is just an average foul shooter; in addition, he’s a slightly subpar passer, and he lacks the athleticism. You think smallball PF and Draymond Green, you think threes, passing and quick-twitch reflexes--Deng has none of those. Respectfully, I see Deng as more of a tweener rather than a mismatch threat. On offense, as he gets into his 30s, passing and shooting are the major indicators that help a player age gracefully, and Deng doesn’t have that. Undersized PFs also rapidly flame out into their 30s, so it’s kind of a delicate situation here, especially for someone of Deng’s mileage (he’s played 33 minutes or more a game ever since 2005, so over a period of 10 years!!!). FiveThirtyEight’s projections have Deng producing reasonably in the first year of his contract (with 2.5 wins above replacement and a +0.6 +/- rating), but becoming a bit player by the third year of the deal. To Deng’s credit, he’s an incredibly tough customer, bred by the tough-nosed Tom Thibodeau back in the Chicago Bulls days, and has only played fewer than 70 games once since 2012 (he played 88 games this season during the Heat’s playoff run). If there’s someone you’d be willing to bet on to buck the odds, it’s Deng, due to his character and his upbringing (escaping South Sudan as a child).

    As mentioned, Deng is unathletic--he has a career 3.7% dunk rate, a mark that puts him below the small forward average, and even his 3.5% dunk rate this season at primarily PF was in the bottom third for the position. Even from age 26 to 28, Deng’s dunk rates were routinely bottom-quarter material, so this is a non-athlete we’re dealing with. Deng is a fairly good cutter, as he’s in the top third in both layup attempts and conversion rate among PFs, and this forms the crux of his solid at-rim ability; but while he gets offensive rebounds, he lacks the quick reflexes for tip-ins. Deng’s mid-range game is pretty good--he’s a career 39.8% on long mid-range jumpers, and per basketball-reference, he hasn’t shot less than 38% here since 2013. With Miami, Deng has also shown robust percentages at no-man’s land (45-46%), and he takes more shots than the average small forward from this range. Overall, Deng is just resourceful here--despite the lack of athleticism, he gets layups, draws fouls, excels in short jumpers and can hit the long mid-range shot.

    While Deng has not been an avid practitioner of the three point shot, as a smallball PF this past year, he had the highest three point rate he’s ever had in his career, while maintaining average percentages--so, baby steps perhaps. He’s exclusively a spot-up three point shooter (all of his threes were assisted this year) and when shooting threes, particularly loves to camp in the corners. He’s top notch in right corner threes--in Miami, he’s put up 47.1% and 40.8% from this area. Deng doesn’t have great range--in non-corner threes, he’s always shot between 27% and 31% since 2012, and this hampers his percentages.

    Overall, on offense, Deng has clear weaknesses--he’s not that good a passer, lacks deep range, and lacks athleticism, but his foul drawing, craftiness within 10 feet and a robust long mid-range game and some short corner threes while reducing turnovers have really helped to offset those problems, while juicing up an offense. At small forward, he was an inside-slight outside threat against smaller wings, and at power forward this season he was able to take advantage of defending bigs with his savviness.

    Really, there’s confusion on the perception of Deng--he’s really much more of an offensive player than he is a defensive player, despite the fact that he seems to have a defensive rep. Over the past three seasons, he’s really been slightly above average in impact on defense. Deng never fouls (he’s in the 90th percentile in not fouling) which is how he’s able to play such heavy minutes all the time. But at the same time he’s only a middling defensive rebounder, and is subpar in steals and also lacking in shotblocking (here’s an interesting statistical quirk: in his 12 years in the league, Deng has consistently averaged between 1 and 1.2 steals per 40 minutes, with one exception). Deng has bad athleticism and applied athleticism on defense, and that lack of quick twitch reflexes and height might be problematic in smallball PF matchups--so in addition to the offensive concerns, there are these defensive concerns. Still, he’s a solid defensive player in spite of all that, and at PF he was particularly effective at chasing opponents off the three point
     
  5. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    34,632
    Likes Received:
    58,137
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    So Cal
    Offline
    Excellent ROFY. :Headbang: And thanks, Rydjorker :FistPump:
     
  6. ElginTheGreat

    ElginTheGreat - Lakers MVP -

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2014
    Messages:
    10,173
    Likes Received:
    28,309
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    Good stuff.
     
  7. John3:16

    John3:16 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    6,590
    Likes Received:
    15,641
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    CEO - Big Baller Brand
    Offline
    I've always loved his in depth analysis. Thanks for contacting him and posting.
     
    lakerjones likes this.
  8. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    8,879
    Likes Received:
    20,184
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Wherever I am at the moment...
    Offline
    I quintuple what LTLakerFan wrote... So one is a big moose who really does not totally suck but is no big shakes either while the other sounds like the Sudanese Robert Horry.
     
  9. John3:16

    John3:16 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    6,590
    Likes Received:
    15,641
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    CEO - Big Baller Brand
    Offline
    Am I the only one anxiously awaiting the scouting report on Zubaca?

    :FistPump:
     
  10. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    34,632
    Likes Received:
    58,137
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    So Cal
    Offline
    I took a sneak peak at it on his site. Not necessarily agreeing with all of it. He likes him though.


    Edit: Upon rereading his analysis because I started to wonder ..... if this was all written prior to Summer League (which eye tests are we talking?) ...... I think it was. Zu has offensive capabilities, handling the ball and passing written all over him I think. He's VERY coordinated for a 19 year old colt as big as he is already at 265lbs and 7'1".
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
  11. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    34,632
    Likes Received:
    58,137
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    So Cal
    Offline
    As well ..... surprisingly Huertas does not suck in a complete sense as badly on defense as is routinely thought here. (See I pick and choose what I want to agree with)

    Yi. YIKES! Luuke, you wanted him. Let's see if you and your posse of assistants can FIX him. Last year we failed at fixing Hibbert and Upshaw. Doubtful Luke could have done any better with either. Maybe though being around [​IMG] for camp and short periods of time with the big squad drove Upshaw back to the drugs? :Woozyshaq:
     
  12. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

    Top Poster Of Month

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2014
    Messages:
    25,703
    Likes Received:
    69,918
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Offline
    not bullish on mozgov. i've been trying to sell myself since the signing, but jorker's not helping.
     
    Purp n Gold and trodgers like this.

Share This Page