Official Whine, Moan, Complain Thread 19/20-CLOSED "WE CHAMPS!"

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by puffyusaf#2, Jul 5, 2016.

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  1. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers MVP -

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    fines? $500 per miss FT, $ goes to charity or a pot where the guy with best ft% (at least 85% to qualify) gets the $ at the end. I dont expect anyone to win, so charity! lol
     
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  2. Mitch

    Mitch - Rookie -

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    Slapping? One lucky fan gets the chance to slap the worst 5 FT shooters each week at halftime until the team is at 75% collectively?
     
  3. D-Fish Man

    D-Fish Man - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Our young guys haven't improved. Really disappointed to see this. I thought Ingram and Kuz were gonna be studs, and Lonzo was going to find some consistency on offense. I could say plenty of nice things about these guys too. They're not scrubs. Just wanted to see more growth than we've seen over the last 13 games.
     
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  4. Azndude2190

    Azndude2190 - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Josh Hart to me, is closer to a more complete player than the rest of our young guys. He doesn't really have glaring holes in his game like Kuz, Lonzo, and BI. Ironically though, he's not considered part of the core, nor was he ever suppose to be more than a role player.
     
  5. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers MVP -

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    I think I read a report last season that teams were calling bout Josh, I think most gm's know who the real "talent" is as far as this group of young players.
     
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  6. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    i think the lack of enthusiasm for hart is mostly about his ceiling. with his attributes, you can only be so impactful in this league. think of gary harris as kind of a best case scenario, though he was a much better shooter from the get-go. i love hart, though. give me four more like him at each position and i'll win a lot of games.
     
  7. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

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    ...Chamberlain once hired a hypnotist to help him with his free throws. Hypnotist ended up being better at it. :)
     
  8. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff - Lakers Legend -

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    Make the team shoot underhanded

    Oh wait! I know!

    Make the team watch film of Lebron’s defense and douchey interviews

    They’ll be begging for more practice time
     
  9. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Kuzma is a bad shooter. He couldn’t shoot in college, and he can’t shoot in the NBA. At least from three (and mostly from the line).
     
  10. TIME

    TIME Administrator Staff Member

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    Definitely disagree. What’s your stat line that identifies good shooters from bad shooters?

    Kuz shot 45% and 36% from three last season. In my world that is a good shooter. Those numbers are both better than Kobe’s career averages. He is up to 48% overall this year. His three ball is bad so far at 28%, but I expect that to improve to the vicinity of last year’s number.
     
  11. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I’ll show you standard deviations when I get to my office.
     
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  12. Anon Inam

    Anon Inam Guest

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    Har. Har.
     
  13. OmarE

    OmarE - Lakers Starter -

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  14. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    FG%
    45% was the median FG% two seasons ago (when I gathered the data)
    41% is one Standard Deviation below
    49% is one SD above
    Below that or above that is 2 SDs.

    Kuzma’s FG% has been within one standard deviation of the normal – that’s normal shooting.
    He did twice shoot better than 50% in college.
    Note: this is the ONLY shooting distance that isn’t controlled by distance. I include Kobe here for comparison.
    Kuzma shot 64% on 0-3 foot shots (that might be average; I don’t know; it might be worse). Kobe was 63.4% in his career.
    He shot 44% on 3-10 foot shots. Kobe was 44.8%
    He shot 36% on 10-16 foot shots. Kobe was 43.9%
    He shot 38% on 16 to short of the 3. Kobe was 40.2%

    So, where should we rank him? I’ll give him average, but he might be below (based on distance). This is just to say that he takes shots he can hit – that’s good. No one thinks DeAndre Jordan is a good shooter based on his FG% - but he takes shots he can hit.

    3pt%
    Kuzma shot 36.4%, which is within an SD of the league average (it’s 35%).
    But this year he’s shooting 29%, which is two full SDs below average – or terrible.
    And in his college career, he shot 32.4%, 25.5%, and 32.1%, for a career mark of 30.2%.
    That’s really, really bad. You might choose to go with the 36% mark for one of two reasons – he did it over the course of a season and he was “just a rookie” and you think he might become better. But, he’s taken a significant number in the other four years of basketball and he has shot poorly in all of those years. We can disagree about this number, but you can’t argue that he’s better than average. He’s at best average. I think the indications are that he’s not as good as average and won’t be over his career.

    FT%
    81% is the mid point.
    73 is an SD below.
    Kuzma shot 70.7 last year – two SDs below and he’s at 75.8% this year (more than an SD below)
    In college, he shot 55.6%, 61.7%, and 66.9%. Maybe he’s improving, but he’s more than an SD below average.
    He’s a poor to dreadful FT shooter.

    Overall

    The area where Kuzma is best is the only area that isn’t controlled for distance. He was only 42.2% FGs in clutch, which is way below his average otherwise. Kobe not only took more high difficulty shots, he outshoots Kuzma at every level except on close to the hoop. (I don’t know why Kobe’s in here, but you brought him up.) Kuzma is at best average and at best below average on 3pts and FTs. He’s at worst dreadful at both 3pts and FTs. Let’s split the difference and say he’s slightly below average. If you’re good with that, cool. If not, we can talk about it more.

    I suppose I could have made up these stats to support some “opinion” I have, but full disclosure: Russ is a just below-average shooter on these measures (again, I don’t make much of FG%).
     
  15. Big Mamma Jamma

    Big Mamma Jamma - Rookie -

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    Very nice T. The other thing to note that probably isn't considered here but should be is that Kuzma's 3pt% in college was from a shorter distance since the 3pt line in the NBA is further out. It's hard to really say whether he will improve or not. I guess Jason Kidd did it later in his career so there might time for him but right now, he is average.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2018
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  16. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Some do improve. Some don’t. And if a player shoots a career high (to that point) in year 1, how often do they continue to shoot at that clip? Empirical questions require data. I don’t have all that.
     
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  17. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers MVP -

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    the color and the material looks really good, just not feeling the pin stripes
     
  18. Big Mamma Jamma

    Big Mamma Jamma - Rookie -

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    KCP should feel right at home in stripes!
     
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  19. Big Mamma Jamma

    Big Mamma Jamma - Rookie -

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    Yeah, but I do agree with your premise. The good thing about Kuz is that he is a hard worker so he might continue to improve.

    I was having a debate with a friend who is a b-ball coach about improved shooting. He believes that anyone can eventually be a great shooter. I disagreed. I guess if one were to hoist up a 1,000,000 shots then yes, I guess that is entirely possible. But, I think there is more to it... it's the mechanics, the depth perception, the trajectory and the natural God-given ability.

    This is a homer example but my son shoots about 45%-50% from 3pt range (anecdotally) from the high school and college line. He just turned 13. He shoots about 5-7 threes a game. This kid has always been a natural shooter. Whenever we are at tournaments, we have people compliment him on his shot calling it "beautiful", "textbook", "natural" etc.

    Now, I made very few tweaks to his shot (mostly his off-hand) because in my mind the way a person shoots is due to their physical make up and how comfortable they feel. A shot is almost like a signature... unique to that person.

    So, I would say that there is likely some level of improvement a person can make so maybe that is why some improve and maybe the reason others don't improve is that they've hit their potential.

    Anyway, sorry for rambling but your stats made me think of that...
     
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  20. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    The difference between a 13 and 20 year old is that the 20 year old has so many reps already just more shooting won’t necessarily make a difference. At 13, the body is changing so much. That’s “mostly” done by 20s. So a 13 year old could improve greatly, but that doesn’t mean they’ll become great.
     
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